Rangers face Celtic in the first Old Firm derby of the season. Kickoff from Ibrox in Glasgow is set for 12:00 p.m. UK time.

It has been a poor week for both teams in Europe.

Rangers were embarrassed by Club Brugge on Wednesday, crashing out of the Champions League after a humiliating 9-1 aggregate defeat. Their league form hasn’t been much better either—each of their three matches so far has ended in a 1-1 draw, a start that hardly boosts their title ambitions.

Celtic also endured disappointment in Europe, traveling to Almaty on Tuesday only to be knocked out by Kairat on penalties. It’s hard to say which exit was more embarrassing. However, unlike Rangers, Celtic’s domestic form has been far more convincing. They’ve won all three of their league matches and already hold a two-point lead over second-placed Hearts going into the weekend.

What does our model think will happen in this game?

Our model analyzes various metrics from the last five games across all competitions, incorporating standard stats like shots taken and fouls, as well as advanced metrics such as expected goals (xG) and Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA). It also factors in injuries, suspensions, team form, and bookmaker odds. The game is simulated 10,000 times, with the final prediction based on the average outcome.

Based on the data, our model predicts the following result:

Rangers 0, Celtic 2

Our model gives Celtic a 65% chance of victory, suggesting they’ll come out on top against their city rivals.

Given Rangers’ poor start, this result would come as no surprise. Their early-season struggles show they’re not shaping up to be genuine title contenders, and a defeat here would only make their path to the league crown even more difficult.

Ben Tredinnick is the publisher of The 4th Quartile. He can be reached on X: @BMTredinnick, @T4Quartile and on Instagram: b.m.tredinnick and t4_quartile

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