Juventus and Inter Milan, two of Italy’s strongest teams, face off against each other on Saturday (September 13). Kickoff from the Allianz Stadium in Turin is set for 6pm CEST.

Juventus come into this game as one of four undefeated teams after two games. The other three are Napoli, Roma and promoted Cremonense. The Old Lady have had a fairly simple start to the season, with wins against Parma and Genoa. Today’s game is their first real test, and will be a good preparation for their UEFA Champions League opener against Borussia Dortmund next week.

Inter Milan should be undefeated to start their season, but after two games only have three points. They easily defeated Torino 5-0 to open their season, but where then defeated by Udinese in the last game before the international break.

What does are model think will happen in this game?

Our model analyzes various metrics from the last five games across all competitions, incorporating standard stats like shots taken and fouls, as well as advanced metrics such as expected goals (xG) and Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA). It also factors in injuries, suspensions, team form, and bookmaker odds. The game is simulated 10,000 times, with the final prediction based on the average outcome.

Based on the data, our model predicts the following result:

Juventus 1, Inter Milan 1

Our model predicts that this is going to be a close game, that is likely to end in a draw.

This should be expected, considering the strength of the two teams. However, if one were to pick to winner, I would go with Inter.

Ben Tredinnick is the publisher of The 4th Quartile. He can be reached on X: @BMTredinnick, @T4Quartile and on Instagram: b.m.tredinnick and t4_quartile

Picture Source: Deposit Photos